Researchers blame COVID-19 pandemic for spike in Oregon’s overdose deaths

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Researchers at Portland State University found that Measure 110 was not responsible for Oregon’s rising crime or overdose deaths.

The controversial drug decriminalization law was passed in 2020 before being repealed last year.

The findings are part of a three-year study

examining Oregon’s controversial drug-possession policies. They found that rather than any policy change, the biggest factor in the state’s crime and drug overdose death rate was the coronavirus.

“Of all the events we examined, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the justice system the most, more so than any legislation,” said Professor Brian Renauer, who helped conduct the study. “We observed COVID-19 pandemic impacts on arrests, charges, convictions, and probation and jail admissions.”

“That being said, the pandemic shifts provided a reset to a lot of the trends, which allowed us to examine how and why some numbers returned to a pre-pandemic level while others did not,” he said.

In June 2023, the researchers released their Year One report, which looked at arrest, search and seizure trends as well as police officer perceptions. The following year, the Year Two report focused on the role of the criminal justice system in connecting people to drug treatment.

The researchers’ final analysis, the Year Three report, utilized state data as well as interviews with decision makers to examine the impacts of criminal justice reform.

“While the rollout of M110 had real problems, and trends varied somewhat by county, by 2023 most metrics in drug arrests, charges, and crime rates were all either declining or stable at relatively low rates,” said Christopher Campbell, an associate professor who worked on the study.

“Drug-related deaths began climbing rapidly before M110, peaked in 2023 and were starting to recede,” Campbell said. “What we observed was far from a causal connection to M110, rather, we saw an unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and fentanyl on public health and safety outcomes.”

Within the first few months of the pandemic, during the height of the lockdown, overdose deaths increased from a statewide average of 40.7 per month to 62.6, according to the report. Between March 2020 and February 2021, the average number of overdose deaths in Oregon peaked at 86 deaths in a single month.

Recent improvements in treatment service have started to reverse the trend, but overall overdose deaths have been on the rise. Since early 2020, fentanyl-related overdose deaths in Oregon have increased 1000%, more than any other state, according to the report.

On average, there are about 110.9 drug-related deaths per month across the state, according to the findings. Similarly, the National Center for Health Statistics also reports that overdose deaths increased nationwide between 2020 and 2021, with a 22% increase in overdose deaths involving the use of synthetic opioids other than methadone.

PSU researchers found that the emergence of fentanyl played a key role in the increase in overdose deaths.

“Our results show that for every kilogram of fentanyl seized in the month prior, there is an increase of 4.2 deaths in the next month,” the report said.

Citing work from other researchers, the report also attributes the rise in overdose deaths to lack of drug treatment programs available during the initial rollout of Measure 110.