Poll: Blackburn holds early led over Rose in GOP governor primary

U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn. (Photo: John Partipilo/Tennessee Lookout)

U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn holds a significant lead over U.S. Rep. John Rose in the 2026 Republican primary for Tennessee governor, according to a poll released by the conservative think tank Beacon Center. 

The Beacon poll gives Blackburn a 68% to 14% advantage among the 571 Republican voters the group polled from July 27 to August 1. 

The poll was conducted before Blackburn officially announced her campaign at the start of August. Rose entered the campaign in March.

Early polling leads aren’t always an indication of who will win.

When Gov. Bill Lee ran in a five-person Republican primary in 2018, he trailed in polling until the campaign’s final weeks. 

A March 2018 poll conducted by the Washington, D.C.-based Save the Children Action Network, showed Lee with 7% support, trailing two other Republicans with 20% support each. 

Lee is term-limited and can’t run for reelection.

Blackburn has higher name recognition than Rose, who represents a U.S. Congressional district covering parts of middle and east Tennessee, after winning two statewide elections to the U.S. Senate. She’s also a close ally of President Donald Trump, who has not made an endorsement in the race yet. 

Shortly after her 2024 reelection to the Senate, Blackburn was rumored to be interested in running for governor. But she has waited nearly a year, allowing her to use her federal campaign funds for advertisements and to travel the state using that money.

Now that she’s officially entered the race, Blackburn can’t use federal campaign funds in the governor’s race as federal campaign finance laws prohibit the comingling of funds for state and federal races. 

Rose has shown he’s willing to put his personal funds, loaning his campaign $5 million. 

In 2018, the last time there was an open primary for Tennessee’s governor, the candidates spent almost $50 million. 

Memphis City Council member Jerri Green is the only Democrat to announce a candidacy in the Democratic primary.