Texas expected to face major job losses as AI reshapes economy

DALLAS (KDAF) — A new study has revealed that Texas’s cashiers are set to lose the most due to AI, and its software developers are set to gain the most.

AI-powered ERP provider Priority Software analyzed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on current employment levels, current wages, and projected changes in employment levels by occupation through 2033 to identify which occupations are expected to gain and lose the most from economic changes in each state and across the country.

The three occupations predicted to have the largest decreases in payroll costs by 2033 in Texas

Rank	Occupation	Expected Additional Annual Payroll Cost in 2033 (2024 dollars)	Projected Employment Change (2023-33)	Projected Employment Change (%, 2023-33)	Median Annual Wage in State ($, 2024)
1.	Cashiers	-$798,858,941	-28,218	-10.6%	$28,310
2.	Customer Service Representatives	-$646,205,700	-16,527	-5.0%	$39,100
3.	First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers	-$487,198,272	-7,575	-4.4%	$64,320

Texas’s cashiers are set to lose the most from AI implementation in the economy, with total payroll expected to fall by $798.9 million statewide by 2033 in 2024 dollars. This is a result of national employment levels for cashiers being expected to drop by 10.6%, equal to 28,218 lost jobs in Texas compared to 2023, and the average wage in Texas for this job of $28,310 per year. Increased automation from more powerful AI, allowing more self-service checkouts, and changing consumer shopping habits will be the major factors driving this decline.

Customer service representatives are expected to be the second worst affected occupation in the Lone Star State, with payrolls projected to decrease by $646.2 million by 2033. Nationally, employment in this job is expected to decline by 5%, equating to 16,527 lost jobs in Texas compared to 2023’s employment levels. This occupation’s decline will be in part due to automation of these roles by AI that can handle more complex tasks like customer complaints.

Supervisors for office and administrative roles will be the third hardest-hit occupation in Texas. Annual payrolls are set to drop by $487.2 million by 2033 across 7,575 lost jobs in Texas when compared to 2023. This 4.4% decrease in jobs will result from reduced employment in subordinate roles, and AI automation.

The three occupations predicted to have the largest increases in payroll costs by 2033 in Texas

Rank	Occupation	Expected Additional Annual Payroll Cost in 2033 (2024 dollars)	Projected Employment Change (‘000s, 2023-33)	Projected Employment Change (%, 2023-33)	Median Annual Wage in State ($, 2024)
1.	Software Developers	$3,538,029,870	27,111	17.9%	$130,500
2.	General and Operations Managers	$2,645,024,390	26,374	5.8%	$100,290
3.	Computer and Information Systems Managers	$2,180,323,495	13,031	17.4%	$167,320

Unsurprisingly, software developers are expected to be the biggest winners in Texas’s projected economy of 2033, with payroll costs set to soar by $3.54 billion in 2024 dollars, and total jobs to increase by 17.9% or 27,111 statewide. This is primarily because of the increased need for software integration in daily work.

General and operations managers are expected to have the second largest increase in payrolls. By 2033, total pay in Texas will increase by $2.65 billion across 26,374 jobs in this field. The 5.8% increase in employment for these roles will be a result of organizations relying on them more to provide strategic decision making.

Computer and information systems managers complete the top three roles with the largest projected increase in Texas. Payrolls for these jobs are projected to increase by a total of $2.18 billion from an increase in 13,031 jobs. The expected 17.4% increase in employment for this occupation will be due to strong demand for IT systems to support increased use of computers in the daily life.

The top and bottom three occupations predicted to have the largest decreases in payroll costs by 2033 nationwide

Rank	Occupation	Expected Additional Annual Payroll Cost in 2033 (2024 dollars)	Projected Employment Change (‘000s, 2023-33)	Projected Employment Change (%, 2023-33)	Median Annual Wage ($, 2024)
1.	Cashiers	-$11,013,189,000	-353.1	-10.6%	$31,190
2.	Office clerks, general	-$6,435,425,000	-147.5	-5.6%	$43,630
3.	Customer service representatives	-$6,373,104,000	-148.8	-5.0%	$42,830
…	…	…	…	…	…
824.	Financial managers	$22,363,110,000	138.3	16.5%	$161,700
825.	Home health and personal care aides	$28,635,450,000	820.5	20.7%	$34,900
826.	Software developers	$40,416,396,000	303.7	17.9%	$133,080

Cashiers are predicted to have the largest decline nationally, with total payroll expected to fall by $11.01 billion by 2033 over 353,100 lost jobs. Forty-five out of the 49 states analyzed also have cashiers as their hardest-hit occupation.

General office clerks are expected to be the second hardest-hit, with payrolls projected to decrease by $6.44 billion by 2033 from 147,500 lost jobs across America.

Rounding out the top three are customer service representatives. Annual payrolls are set to drop by $6.37 billion by 2033 across 148,800 lost jobs when compared to 2023.

Software developers are expected to see the largest increases in payrolls by 2033, with a predicted rise of $40.42 billion across 303,700 jobs nationally. Twenty states are expected to have software developers be the best-performing occupation by employment increases.

Payrolls for home health and personal care aides are expected to increase the second most, with total pay increasing by $28.64 billion across 820,500 jobs in this field across America.

Financial managers are third. Payrolls for these jobs are projected to increase by a total of $22.36 billion from an increase in 138,300 jobs.