Unusual July in Big Country: Cooler temps, more rain

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – This July, we’ve all noticed it: cooler than average temperatures and more rain than usual. Usually by this time, we’ve already endured a handful of triple digits, little to no rain, and often a developing drought. But this July has thrown us for a loop. So far, we’ve only seen two 100-degree days, and more than two inches of rain have fallen in Abilene, even more in other areas across the Big Country. And to put the cherry on top, we’re completely drought free.

As of now, we’re sitting at 108th place for the warmest July on record. For comparison, the hottest July on record occurred a few years ago in 2022, with an average of a sweltering 90.7 degrees. This year, the average temperature so far is just 82 degrees, a decent difference and one we are not used to seeing this late in the month or in the summer.

But with triple digits making a return in the forecast and rain chances continuing to back off, the question becomes: Are we heading back toward a more typical Texas summer, and will that stick around into the fall?

In the short term, models are suggesting that we can expect a return to hotter, drier conditions to close out the month and the start of August. This warmup, though, will be more gradual rather than a full-on heat wave, thanks to the remaining moisture in our soil, giving us a bit of a buffer that keeps the extremes away for a little while longer. However, if the rain stays away for too long, and our normal high pressure reestablishes itself, we can expect August may look much more familiar. Hotter, drier, and more in line with what we usually can expect for late summer in the Big Country.

Long term, heading into the beginning of the fall, we can expect the above-average temperatures to stick around across the state, according to the Climate Prediction Center, meaning we won’t shake off the triple digits early, unfortunately. Rain chances remain at equal chances as we head into the peak of hurricane season, and we will be monitoring where activity initiates and tracks. If we manage to see activity in the gulf, we may be able to squeeze out a few showers from some moisture from the gulf, but that is also dependent on how strong our upper-level dynamics are.

Overall, warmer than average conditions will remain in places, and triple digits are not out of the picture.

Don’t forget to download the BCH Togo app to get the latest forecasts as well as any updates on the weather outlooks. Stay cool and stay weather aware, Big Country!