According to a recent study by Bader Scott, which analyzed the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Prisoner Statistics for 2021 and 2022, Texas led the nation in the absolute number of new prisoners, adding 5,859 new incarcerations during that one-year period. That’s a 4.4% increase, putting Texas just outside the top five states ranked by percentage increase.
Nationwide, the overall prison population increased by 25,056 individuals, marking a 2.08% rise nationwide. Though the U.S. incarceration rate has declined since its peak in 2009, this recent uptick suggests the downward trend may be reversing in some places.
And while Texas added the most inmates numerically, it wasn’t alone. Several states saw higher increases in terms of percentage, raising concerns among justice reform advocates that the U.S. may be quietly slipping back into mass incarceration patterns.
States with the Highest Increase in Incarceration Rates (2021-2022)
| Rank | State | Numerical Change | Percentage Change |
| 1 | Mississippi | 2,470 | 14.3% |
| 2 | Montana | 378 | 8.8% |
| 3 | Colorado | 1,303 | 8.2% |
| 4 | Tennessee | 1,740 | 7.9% |
| 5 | Minnesota | 633 | 7.9% |
States with the Largest Decrease in Incarceration Rates (2021-2022)
| Rank | State | Numerical Change | Percentage Change |
| 1 | Virginia | -3,195 | -10.5% |
| 2 | Oregon | -680 | -5.2% |
| 3 | California | -3,833 | -3.8% |
| 4 | New Mexico | -184 | -3.6% |
| 5 | Massachusetts | -147 | -2.4% |
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