Texas leads states where prison populations are surging: Here’s why

DALLAS (KDAF) — The U.S. may no longer hold the title as the fifth-largest incarceration rate in the world, but new data shows that several states are seeing a troubling rise in prison populations—and Texas is at the forefront.

According to a recent study by Bader Scott, which analyzed the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Prisoner Statistics for 2021 and 2022, Texas led the nation in the absolute number of new prisoners, adding 5,859 new incarcerations during that one-year period. That’s a 4.4% increase, putting Texas just outside the top five states ranked by percentage increase.

Nationwide, the overall prison population increased by 25,056 individuals, marking a 2.08% rise nationwide. Though the U.S. incarceration rate has declined since its peak in 2009, this recent uptick suggests the downward trend may be reversing in some places.

And while Texas added the most inmates numerically, it wasn’t alone. Several states saw higher increases in terms of percentage, raising concerns among justice reform advocates that the U.S. may be quietly slipping back into mass incarceration patterns.

States with the Highest Increase in Incarceration Rates (2021-2022)

Rank	State	Numerical Change	Percentage Change
1	Mississippi	2,470	14.3%
2	Montana	378	8.8%
3	Colorado	1,303	8.2%
4	Tennessee	1,740	7.9%
5	Minnesota	633	7.9%

States with the Largest Decrease in Incarceration Rates (2021-2022)

Rank	State	Numerical Change	Percentage Change
1	Virginia	-3,195	-10.5%
2	Oregon	-680	-5.2%
3	California	-3,833	-3.8%
4	New Mexico	-184	-3.6%
5	Massachusetts	-147	-2.4%