AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Washington, DC, city council special election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in southeast Washington, D.C., will fill a vacant city council seat Tuesday in a special election to replace former Councilmember Trayon White, who was expelled from office in February following his 2024 arrest in a federal corruption probe. Among the candidates to replace White on the council is White himself.

The election will again give residents of the district’s 8th Ward representation on the council as the city faces a $1 billion budget shortfall stemming from the Trump administration’s massive cuts to the federal workforce, a separate billion-dollar budget fight with congressional Republicans and a possible clash between the Democratic mayor and the council over a proposed $4 billion stadium deal with the Washington Commanders football team.

Besides White, the other candidates in the running are Salim Adofo, Mike Austin and Sheila Bunn. Adofo is chair of a local Advisory Neighborhood Commission, or ANC. Austin is an attorney and a former ANC chair. Bunn was a top aide to former mayor and longtime Councilmember Vincent Gray as well as to the district’s non-voting delegate to Congress, Eleanor Holmes Norton. All four candidates are Democrats. There are no Republicans on the ballot.

White refused to cooperate with an internal council inquiry and has sought to stoke suspicion of the FBI, which arrested him last August. Despite his ongoing legal troubles, White was reelected in 2024 with 76% of the vote over his Republican opponent. Adofo challenged White in the primary that year but placed second with 28% of the vote, behind White’s 51%. Austin challenged White in the 2020 primary, but White prevailed with 58% to Austin’s 28%.

Ward 8, like the city itself, is heavily Democratic. Former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried the ward with 91% of the vote in the 2024 presidential race against Republican Donald Trump.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

In District of Columbia elections, recounts are automatic in city council races if the margin is less than 1% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Special election day

Washington’s city council special election will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare a winner in the Ward 8 city council seat.

Who gets to vote?

Any voter registered in Ward 8 may participate in the special election.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of June 30, there were nearly 56,000 registered voters in Ward 8. Of those, 76% were Democrats, 4% were Republicans and about 18% were not registered with any party. The remainder were registered with minor parties.

Turnout for special elections in the district tends to be significantly lower than that of regularly scheduled general elections. An April 2015 special election for a Ward 8 city council seat had turnout at 14% of registered voters. By comparison, turnout for the same Ward 8 seat was 24% of registered voters for the 2022 general election and 52% in 2024.

A June 2020 special election for a Ward 2 city council seat also saw a steep drop-off in voter turnout compared with regularly scheduled elections. Turnout in that contest was 23% of registered voters, compared with 42% in the 2022 general election and 75% in the 2024 presidential election.

Ballots are mailed to all registered voters in Ward 8, so a relatively large share of voters typically do not vote at the polls on Election Day. In higher-profile elections, like the 2022 mayoral race and the 2024 presidential race, more than 70% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. As of Wednesday, a total of 2,681 Ward 8 ballots had already been cast. That number may increase considerably with early in-person voting beginning on Friday.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported Ward 8 results at 10:14 p.m. ET, or more than two hours after polls closed. That initial report included about 85% of the total vote. The last update of the night was later that hour at 10:57 p.m. ET with about 88% of the total votes counted.

Results for the Ward 8 city council race that year were first reported at 10:25 p.m. ET. The last update of the night was at 11:12 p.m. ET with about 81% of total votes counted.