It’s July! So… where are the triple digits?

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Here in West Texas, we’re used to summers being hot, dry, and honestly brutal. By now, we usually have several 100-degree days under our belts, but so far, we’ve only hit triple digits once, back in June. Some folks are waiting for the unbearable heat to roll in, while others are totally fine with it staying away. So, what’s going on? And will the typical Texas heat return soon?

Let’s break it down:

In the near term, temperatures remain right around normal, or even slightly below, for this time of year. The average high for early July is about 95°, and we’re hovering near that mark in the 7-day forecast. The reason for this is the recent rain we’ve seen. While it made things feel more humid, it also helped cool the atmosphere. The lingering moisture, along with cloud cover every other day, has kept us from heating up too quickly.

Usually, a strong high-pressure system builds over our region at this time of the summer. That’s what really cranks up the heat and sends us into the triple-digit threshold. But right now, we’re not seeing that strong upper-level ridge take hold just yet.

Looking a bit further out, the Climate Prediction Center is still favoring below-normal temperatures through the middle of the month. Clouds and moisture are still present, and no major upper-level pattern has developed yet. As we head into mid- and late July, temperatures may start creeping up toward normal, and eventually, we could see 100° days in the forecast. But it really depends on how strong that upper-level ridge ends up being, and that’s something we’ll be watching closely in the coming weeks.

And let’s be real, this is Texas. Forecasts are always changing, and even a few days out, things can shift quickly. So, while we’re not seeing those scorching temps right now, it’s always smart to be aware of that heat, because it can sneak up on you fast.

Now, let’s talk about rain. After the devastating flooding across the Hill Country, which tragically took more than 100 lives and left many displaced, many of us are hoping for drier weather to recover and regroup. But summertime afternoon showers are normal for us this time of year. Some can be heavy or even severe, but they’re usually quick, isolated, or scattered.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, we’re favored for above normal rainfall beyond the 7-day forecast, mostly thanks to an atmospheric setup pulling in moisture from the Gulf. That could mean more of those afternoon pop-up storms across parts of the Big Country. As we get toward the end of July, rain chances are expected to dip but remain above normal as moisture from the southwest can make its way into the Big Country (this is due to the monsoon season), but this is all dependent on what upper-level pattern will bring into our area.

So, to sum it up:

No big heat dome just yet, and triple digits aren’t knocking on our doorstep yet either. Rain chances are still in play for much of July, especially in the afternoons. It’s a “normal” summer so far, but that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods. With a neutral ENSO pattern, things can shift quickly, so we’ll keep watching it.

And as always, even if it doesn’t feel that hot yet, don’t let your guard down when it comes to heat safety. It can pack a punch when you’re least expecting it!