SEVERE STORMS possible Saturday night

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Not much has changed in our longer-range weather pattern.  Our next chance at strong to severe thunderstorms will be over the northern half of the area Saturday evening and Saturday night.

Strong to severe storms will develop to the north of the ArkLaTex Saturday afternoon.  The focus of the activity will gradually shift to the south into our area Saturday evening and Saturday night.  The Storm Prediction Center still indicates that we will have a marginal to slight severe weather risk. The most widespread concern will be damaging winds.  Some hail will also be possible.  The tornado risk will be very low, but it will not be zero.   

Since the severe weather possibilities for Saturday night still look somewhat limited, I would keep my level of worry at 4 out of 10.  The threat of scattered storms will continue each day through almost all of next week. Since there are no major disturbances moving through, any severe weather next week should be somewhat isolated.  Consequently, my level of worry for the rest of the 10-day period into next weekend is 3 out of 10.   

Now that temperatures have gotten hot and will likely stay hot, it will become more important that we get the occasional round of rain.  It still appears that all of the area will see above-normal rainfall during the next ten days.  The rainfall potential outlook from the Blend of Models has not changed much since yesterday.  It still appears that the heaviest rain will be over the northwest half of the area, where totals of 2.5 to up to 4” will be possible.  The southeast half of the area will see totals in the range of 1.5 to over 2”.