Big Country Summer Outlook: It’s going to be hot & that’s not clickbait!

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Heading into summer, especially here in the Big Country, we all know what to expect: hot and dry conditions. However, each month, the Climate Prediction Center releases a seasonal outlook that helps explain why we can expect specific weather patterns and how intense they may become. Let’s take a closer look.

First, the Farmers’ Almanac, a well-known publication that has been around since the 1800s, uses a combination of tools, including climatological patterns, sunspot activity, lunar tides, and other atmospheric data, to make seasonal predictions. According to the Summer 2025 outlook, it’s expected to be hot and dry. Sure, we already had a feeling, but according to them, this summer is shaping up to be a real scorcher.

That being said, they aren’t expecting things to get out of hand right away. June is forecast to be near normal, which still means it’ll be plenty warm around here. But once we head into July and August, that’s when they’re predicting the heat could really ramp up, possibly even to record-breaking levels.

Last summer, we recorded one of the hottest summers on record. Nationwide, temperatures were approximately 2.5 degrees above normal, marking the hottest summer on Earth since global records began in 1880. Unfortunately, this year could be just as intense, if not hotter.

As for rainfall, the Farmers’ Almanac says precipitation across the country will range from near to slightly below average. For Texas, that doesn’t take much. We’re typically already running a deficit by the time July rolls around.

Looking at the Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook, they’re forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Big Country from June through August. This forecast is based on several factors, one of which is the current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. ENSO is a vital climate phenomenon that influences temperatures and precipitation globally.

Right now, we’re in what’s called an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning there’s no strong El Niño or La Niña influence. That leaves the door open for other drivers, such as local soil moisture and sea surface temperatures.

One thing the CPC paid close attention to this time was soil moisture. Thanks to recent rains across the Big Country, we’ve seen some improvement. That added moisture can help limit just how fast temperatures climb early in the season. However, if the dry trend continues, and there’s a decent chance it will, it won’t take long for hot and dry conditions to return. That raises the risk of worsening drought and triple-digit temperatures, especially later in the summer.

Looking even farther out, there’s a possibility that La Niña could start to develop by fall. If that happens, we could see the dry pattern shift slightly to the southeast; however, for now, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

So, all in all, we’re expecting a classic Big Country summer: hot, dry, and potentially even more intense than what we saw last year, especially in July and August when we typically hit peak heat. Make sure to practice heat safety and always be aware of the signs of heat illness.