New book challenges conventional wisdom on Chicago shootings

CHICAGO (WGN) — Dorchester Avenue runs through Chicago’s South Side for more than 50 blocks, but it’s the corner of South Dorchester Avenue and East 71st Street that serves as a case study in Chicago violence, according to Jens Ludwig, a behavioral economist at the University of Chicago.

“Right behind you is the neighborhood of Greater Grand Crossing,” Ludwig told WGN’s Mike Lowe during an interview at the corner. “Right behind me, on the other side of Dorchester is South Shore. Conventional wisdom says that both neighborhoods should have identical gun violence rates. The socioeconomic and racial makeup is basically identical.

“They’re served by exactly the same court system, prison system, and jails. They have exactly the same gun laws west of Dorchester and east. And yet, the shooting rate in Greater Grand Crossing on this side of Dorchester is fully twice as high as it is in South Shore.”

What accounts for that disparity? It turns out, Greater Grand Crossing has 50 percent more vacant lots, and it has about 20,000 fewer residents than South Shore. South Shore’s more desirable lakefront location means there’s more retail, restaurants and residents.

“Lots more eyes on the street,” Ludwig said,

Eyes on the street — the people who may witness and stop disputes before they become deadly crime scenes — may be the most important tools in the battle against gun crime. Ludwig says social intervention is an important factor in reducing violence in the short term.

It’s an idea that runs contrary to the conventional wisdom that violence reduction is only possible with either harsher legal penalties or stronger social programs.

“What both of those conventional wisdoms get wrong is most shootings are not premeditated; they’re not motivated by economic considerations,” he said. “Most shootings start with words. They’re garden-variety arguments. They escalate, go sideways and end in tragedy because someone’s got a gun.”

In fact, only about 20 percent of shootings in Chicago are motivated by money or material gain. The vast majority arise from those temporary moments of stress on the street.

It’s a subject Ludwig has been researching for years as the director of the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab.  It’s one of the key findings of his new book, “Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.”

The nation, he said, is awash in 400 million guns. That’s not an issue likely to be addressed any time soon. So, instead of wasting time hoping for Congressional action, Ludwig says, cities like Chicago must focus on realistic short-term solutions like using data to send police officers and violence interrupters to the areas most likely to see arguments become shootings, the unforgiving places.

Mayor Brandon Johnson and other leaders have stressed the need for a comprehensive approach to violence that would address education, economics, poverty, policing, the justice system, and the family structure.  

“The good news is that you do not have to solve literally every other problem in society to really move the needle on the gun violence problem,” Ludwig said.

In the book, Ludwig argues that small steps like turning vacant lots into parks or teaching skills like impulse control in schools could go a long way in the short term.

“There’s a bunch of things that are very practical and feasible, don’t take a lot of money and can really make a difference starting yesterday,” he said.