SEVERE storms look promising late Wednesday!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – An upper-level disturbance will move into the southern Plains during the next few days and will bring thunderstorms to the NW quarter of the area late on Wednesday.  Some storms could be severe.

SPC Outlook:  The outlook from the Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will see a marginal to slight severe weather risk over the northwest quarter of the area.  The hi-res models that are seeing this system indicate that all severe weather threats will be possible.  You can see the Futurecast severe weather outlooks in the video.

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How worried am I about severe weather?  For most of the ArkLaTex, the severe weather threat is looking very low.  I’m somewhat concerned about the area north of Interstate 30 in NE TX, SW AR, and SE OK.  Within this area, the risk is looking highest over the NW corner of the area in Red River and McCurtain Counties.  Here, a few tornadoes will be possible, along with wind gusts of over 60 mph and at least quarter-sized hail.  The storms should weaken as they move further SE Wednesday night.  I would put my level of concern at 5 out of 10 for the areas mentioned above and much lower further southeast.   

How much rain?   Futurecast shows that the heaviest rain from now through Wednesday night will be over the north and northwest corners of the area.  This part of the ArkLaTex could see 1 to over 3” of rain.  The rest of the area will likely see less than an inch. 

10-day Outlook:  . The 10-day forecast is not a good one if you like sunshine.  Some models indicate that once the rain returns late on Wednesday, it could continue on and off through this weekend and most of next week.  This week’s most active weather days will likely be on Wednesday evening, Thursday, late Friday, and again on Sunday.  We likely won’t see many changes in temperatures. Highs most days will be in the 80s.  Lows most nights will be in the 60s.