Storm threat returns by the middle of next week

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) -Now that it appears that most of the ArkLaTex will be drier this weekend, our attention shifts to our next chance of storms.  That threat will arrive next Wednesday and could continue into Thursday.

How worried am I about severe weather?  My level of concern has gone down somewhat since yesterday.  It still appears that the highest risk of severe weather will be to the north and west of the ArkLaTex on Monday and Tuesday.  SPC still doesn’t have our area in a slight risk zone on Wednesday and Thursday.  For the past few days, models have been consistent in showing a marginal severe weather threat.  Consequently, my level of worry is 3 out of 10. 

If we do experience severe weather, it still appears that wind and hail will be our biggest threats.  Models are split on the configuration of the upper-level disturbance that will be moving through.  If it takes on a more ‘negative tilt’, then tornadoes could also be a possibility. Right now, the severe risk is looking highest over the NW quarter of the area, near and NW of Interstate 30.    

How much rain?   The Blend of Models is now showing that rainfall totals next week will be ½ to 1” over the southeast half of the area.  The northwest half of the area could see anywhere from 2 to over 3”.

10-day Outlook:  . Temperatures will remain above normal during the next ten days with highs mainly in the 80s.  We could see highs close to 90 on Sunday and early next week.  Lows will mainly be in the 60s.  Once our midweek disturbance moves through, it appears that we could settle into a dry weather pattern for the rest of the 10-day period.