Predicting the next pope can be a notoriously secretive and unpredictable exercise. An old Italian saying even notes that “he who enters a conclave as papabile (favorite) emerges as a cardinal,” suggesting that front-runners often fail to clinch the papacy.
In 2013, few anticipated that Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio would become Pope Francis. Yet speculation is inevitable.
With Pope Francis’s passing at age 88 (after a decade of transformative leadership), Catholics and observers worldwide are asking: Who might step into the shoes of the Fisherman? And what kind of leader does the Church need now?
Popes are elected during a conclave—a closed-door gathering of cardinal electors under age 80. No campaigning is allowed. Cardinals pray, discuss, and vote in strict secrecy. The decision blends faith and politics, tradition and surprise.
Historically, the papacy was held by Italians for nearly 500 years until 1978, when Cardinal Karol Wojtyła of Poland was chosen (Pope John Paul II), followed by a German (Benedict XVI), and then an Argentine (Francis). After these non-Italians, some wonder if the next pope will again be Italian or if the global trend will continue.
Demographics matter as well. Catholic populations are growing fastest in Africa and Asia, while declining in parts of Europe. Roughly 80% of today’s cardinal electors were appointed by Pope Francis, many of whom share his vision of a compassionate, outward-facing Church.
This could favor a successor who continues Francis’s approach, although there is also a bloc of cardinals who might seek a more traditional style. Ultimately, the choice will come from around a hundred men behind closed doors—often resulting in surprises.
Still, a few prominent names commonly surface as “papabili,” each with distinct backgrounds and visions.
Background and Diplomacy
Cardinal Parolin has been the Vatican’s Secretary of State (the Pope’s top diplomat) since 2013 and served as a close advisor to Pope Francis. He is known for delicate negotiations with countries such as China and Vietnam.
Why He’s a Contender
He’s often described as a moderate, continuity candidate who could carry on Francis’s pastoral, dialogue-oriented agenda. With extensive diplomatic experience, Parolin is a pragmatic problem-solver and is respected across different factions within the Church. He’s also Italian—potentially bringing the papacy “back home” after four decades.
Theological Leanings
He is not viewed as a staunch ideologue. Supporters praise him as an idealist committed to peace; critics note a tendency to prioritize diplomacy over doctrinal strictness. Overall, Parolin is seen as someone who might extend Francis’s legacy of engagement with the wider world.
Background and Global Perspective
Cardinal Tagle, often called “Chito,” is the former Archbishop of Manila and currently oversees missionary efforts from the Vatican. He has a significant following in Asia and could be the first Asian pope in modern history. Pope Francis brought Tagle to Rome to lead the evangelization office, focusing on Asia, Africa, and other regions where Catholicism is on the rise.
Why He’s a Contender
With the Church’s center of gravity shifting to the Global South, Tagle represents a dynamic future. He is known for his humble, empathetic style and for sharing personal stories that highlight mercy and compassion. His youthful energy (by papal standards) and bridge-building skills could invigorate Catholics, particularly in developing regions.
Theological Leanings
Tagle is considered progressive on social matters, emphasizing inclusion for marginalized groups, yet doctrinally orthodox on issues such as abortion. He has at times suggested a softer approach toward LGBTQ+ Catholics and divorced couples. Although some believe he was once Francis’s “preferred” successor, recent administrative reshuffles may have cooled that perception. Still, his worldwide popularity keeps him in the conversation.
Background and Experience
Cardinal Erdő serves as Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and is a respected canon lawyer. He has been elected twice to head Europe’s conference of bishops, building strong connections with European and African church leaders alike.
Why He’s a Contender
Erdő is often cited as a prominent conservative choice. He strongly supports traditional doctrine and has voiced skepticism about liberal-leaning reforms. Some high-profile conservatives have endorsed him as someone who could “restore order” in the Vatican.
Theological Leanings
He is widely seen as traditionalist and emphasizes continuity with long-standing Church teachings. This could appeal to cardinals concerned that Francis’s openness has blurred certain doctrinal lines. Erdő’s approach to social issues, such as migration, has sometimes diverged from Francis’s more welcoming stance. If the conclave seeks a doctrinal course correction, he could be their man.
Background and Pastoral Style
Cardinal Zuppi is Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference. He has close ties to the Community of Sant’Egidio, known for peace initiatives and social service. In the 1990s, he was part of efforts to mediate Mozambique’s civil war. Pope Francis made him a cardinal and later appointed him as an envoy for peace in Ukraine.
Why He’s a Contender
Zuppi is seen as a progressive who champions outreach to the poor, migrants, and other vulnerable groups. His “street priest” reputation resonates with the spirit of Pope Francis. His peace-building experience in conflict zones and dialogue with the Russian Orthodox Church highlight his diplomatic potential. Being an Italian close to Francis’s sensibilities, he might unify various factions: Italian tradition blended with contemporary openness.
Theological Leanings
He leans liberal on social issues, having shown empathy toward LGBTQ+ people. He supports Francis’s emphasis on mercy and decentralization. At 69, he could have a relatively long papacy, which might appeal to those seeking lasting stability—or deter others who prefer a shorter papacy.
Background and Global Work
Cardinal Turkson, a leading figure from Africa, has headed various Vatican departments related to social justice, peace, and human development. He was instrumental in drafting the Church’s environmental encyclical, advocating for action on climate change, poverty, and inequality.
Why He’s a Contender
He represents the Church’s rapidly growing presence in Africa and Asia, offering a global perspective. Though conservative on many doctrinal matters (such as priesthood and marriage), he has shown a more moderate social approach, defending the dignity of marginalized groups. For instance, he criticized the severe criminalization of homosexuality in some African countries, calling for humane treatment.
Theological Leanings
His stance mixes traditional views on moral teachings with a strong commitment to social ethics. That balance can appeal to both wings of the Church. If the cardinals are open to another major demographic breakthrough (an African pope after a Latin American), Turkson’s name could surface. His age and recent semi-retirement might weigh against him, but he remains a respected figure.
Background and Conservative Influence
Cardinal Sarah, formerly head of the Vatican’s liturgy office, has gained a worldwide conservative following. He has openly disagreed with Pope Francis on certain reforms, including the possibility of ordaining married men in remote regions.
Why He’s a Contender
Many conservatives see Sarah as a champion of orthodox theology and traditional liturgy—someone who could rollback parts of Francis’s reforms. At 79, he is on the upper edge of eligibility (he can still be elected, but only votes until age 80).
Theological Leanings
Sarah is firmly traditional on matters like priestly celibacy, gender roles, and moral teachings. His supporters view him as a prophet-like figure who would restore strict orthodoxy; detractors fear his papacy would be divisive and undo efforts at broader inclusivity. If elected, he would mark a sharp pivot toward conservatism.
Background and International Service
An American by birth, Cardinal Prevost spent much of his ministry in Peru. He now heads the Vatican office that oversees the appointment of bishops worldwide, giving him a broad view of global Church leadership. Pope Francis entrusted him with responsibilities tied to both Latin America and bishop selection, underscoring his significance.
Why He’s a Contender
Historically, an American pope has been considered unlikely due to geopolitical implications. However, Prevost’s cross-cultural experience in Latin America and his leadership in appointing bishops make him more than just “the American candidate.” He aligns with Francis’s pastoral vision and has shown strong administrative skills. Still, the question remains whether the cardinals would elevate someone from a major world power.
Theological Leanings
He is seen as center-left, emphasizing pastoral care. There’s no record of him advocating sweeping liberal reforms, but he generally supports Francis’s focus on closeness to the people. At 69, he could serve for a significant length of time, offering continuity with Francis’s legacy.
Background and Work in the Middle East
Cardinal Pizzaballa is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, effectively leading Catholics in the Holy Land. He has long experience with Christians, Jews, and Muslims in a tense region. When the recent war between Israel and Hamas escalated, he made headlines by offering himself as a hostage in exchange for kidnapped children.
Why He’s a Contender
His willingness to risk personal safety for a humanitarian gesture caught global attention. This experience in peacemaking and interfaith engagement may appeal to cardinals seeking a leader with on-the-ground skills in conflict resolution. Though Italian, he has spent most of his career in the Middle East, giving him an international edge.
Theological Leanings
He largely aligns with Pope Francis in emphasizing humility and dialogue. Pizzaballa has not been vocal on hot-button doctrinal controversies, which might make him palatable to a wide range of electors. His relative youth (60) suggests a potential long papacy, though he is considered a “dark horse” compared to more established names.
Some additional cardinals occasionally mentioned include:
Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg, known for progressive views and leadership in recent synods.
Marc Ouellet of Canada, at 80, who has extensive Vatican experience but may be considered too old.
Christoph Schönborn of Austria, also 80, a theologian close to Benedict XVI but supportive of some Francis reforms.
José Tolentino de Mendonça of Portugal, age 59, a poet-intellectual who encourages engaging with modern culture.
Mario Grech of Malta, age 68, who has backed ideas like the female diaconate and led global synod discussions.
These names reflect the diversity among Church leadership, spanning a range of theological and cultural perspectives.
Who will be chosen? History suggests the unexpected often occurs. Cardinal electors are guided by faith, but also human factors like regional alliances and personal rapport. After Pope Francis’s transformative, globally engaged approach, the conclave might either opt for a steadier or more traditional figure—or double down on Francis’s vision with another pastor-reformer.
Crucial challenges remain. The new pope must address continued fallout from abuse scandals, the need for clearer governance and accountability, and the challenge of inspiring young people amid secularization in Western nations.
Additionally, issues like climate change, migration, and global inequality remain pressing, just as Francis emphasized. Internally, debates on topics ranging from the role of women to how best to welcome LGBTQ+ members will continue. Each of the potential candidates signals a different path forward.
As one saying goes, you can’t fully predict a conclave. At times, the Holy Spirit (and human negotiations) lead to a choice few foresaw. In the end, when the white smoke appears and a new pope is proclaimed, it will reflect what the cardinal electors believe the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics need at this moment in history.
Whether a familiar name or a surprise, the next pontiff will guide the Church’s next chapter—keeping watchers on their toes until the words “Habemus Papam” echo from the balcony of St. Peter’s.
The post Who could be the next Pope? Here are the leading candidates appeared first on DMNews.
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