Cameron releases new poll on Senate race ahead of expected Barr announcement

FRANKFORT, Ky. (FOX 56) — Kentucky’s next Senate race is more than a year away, but attention is growing as more candidates are expected to join the race. One candidate has released a new poll showing himself in the lead.

“I really think there are two primaries. There is the standard GOP primary that’s held in May of 2026. But there is the Donald J. Trump primary that’s going on right now,” FOX 56 News Political Analyst Jonathan Miller told FOX 56 News.

The poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters shows Daniel Cameron with a strong showing, broken down across every media market in the state. The poll gives a slight bump to the lead Cameron showed in coefficient polling in February, although it’s important to note that the poll had a larger sample size. Both polls were commissioned by Cameron’s campaign.

“Often the polls that we see from campaigns tend to make their candidate look stronger than other polls will. That’s not because the people who take campaign polls are making up data or can’t be trusted. But there are different ways to administer a poll that can either cause results to look a little bit more one way or a little bit more the other, and usually the pollsters that work for a campaign are not in the business of making their candidates look weak,” University of Kentucky political science Professor Stephen Voss told FOX 56 News.

“It’s no surprise that Cameron’s looking strong right now. His opponents haven’t done anything by way of real advertising. Cameron ran a statewide race, so Cameron is going to have good name recognition,” Voss said.

Both Voss and Miller said Cameron’s standing offers few surprises at this point in the race but added that this poll could be more about getting someone else’s attention, particularly in Washington, DC.

“Whether that’s getting political endorsements or getting money, raising money, it’s going to help his fundraising. But again, it’s that audience of one when it comes to Trump. Trump does not like to support losers,” Miller said.

“This Cameron poll might not be about Andy Barr. It might be about Morris, the candidate that some have discussed as possibly getting the Trump endorsement. Trump endorsed Daniel Cameron before, Daniel Cameron won a primary before. To have Cameron looking so much stronger in the poll than Morris would encourage people in the Trump camp to stick with him,” Voss said.

Neither Congressman Andy Barr nor Lexington businessman Nate Morris has officially entered the race, although Barr has organized a campaign announcement event for Tuesday night.

Barr’s campaign declined to comment on the poll.

Voss said the number he thinks is just as significant is the ‘undecideds,’ and this early on, he said the support in each column is not baked in.

“Over a third of the voters in the polls say that they’re undecided. But then, some of the voters who do have a preference likely are up for grabs. We sometimes see people moving around. I really don’t think this race can crystallize until Andy Barr is able to roll out his campaign and voters get a chance to consider him as a possible alternative to Cameron,” Voss said.