STORMS possible Saturday & Sunday evenings

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A rather potent disturbance will move through the middle of the country during the Easter weekend and bring the potential for strong to severe storms Saturday evening for the NW edge of the area and Sunday evening over the SE half of the area. I will have a live update with the latest on Thursday evening at 8:30! 

Saturday evening storms?  It still appears that much, if not most, of the ArkLaTex will stay dry on Saturday and Saturday night.  That probably will not be the case for the NW edge of the ArkLaTex north of Interstate 30.  Storms that develop near Dallas late Saturday afternoon will move across this part of the area late Saturday evening.  As of right now, it appears that our main concern could be damaging winds and maybe some hail.  The tornado risk looks to be rather low.  Worry level 4 out of 10 for the NW edge of the area and 2 out of 10 for the rest of the ArkLaTex. 

Easter Sunday evening storms?  The cold front associated with this disturbance will slowly move into the ArkLaTex on Sunday, bringing a good shot at some rain.  Most models, including Futurecast, show the storms could intensify as they move into East Texas and NW Louisiana. Once again, damaging wind will probably be our main worry, I will know more about the extent of any tornado risk as we get closer to Sunday. Worry level 4 out of 10 for areas near and SE of Shreveport and 3 out of 10 elsewhere.     

It still appears that we will likely see the occasional round of storms impact the ArkLaTex, especially from Tuesday through Friday of next week. Fortunately, most models have backed off a bit on the amount of rain they are indicating, and that is reflected in the latest outlook from the Blend of models.  It now shows that rainfall totals from now through next weekend will be in the range of 1.5 inches over the SE edge of the area to nearly SIX inches over the NW edge

Temperatures will stay warm despite all of the anticipated rain, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 60s. Right now, it appears that temperatures on Easter Sunday morning will begin in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Daytime highs that afternoon will be in the low to middle 80s. Rain chances are looking highest on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  It now appears that we could be dry next weekend.  Fingers crossed that comes to pass, as we will probably need a break by then!