(KLFY) — An upper-level feature will move through the area today, creating atmospheric lift and instability. This, along with high-levels of moisture and a south-to-north atmospheric flow, leads to the potential for some flash flooding.

This happens due to the “training” effect of storms when you have a south-to-north flow. Storms develop over an area and re-develop, hitting the same area multiple times in a short period of time. With storms dumping 1-2 inches of rain per hour, rainfall totals can pile up pretty quickly.

It’s important to note, high-resolution models have backed off a bit on the flash flood risk, now showing more modest hot spots of 2-4 inches versus the 5-7 inches they were showing yesterday morning. Let’s hope this trend continues!

On top of the heavy rain threat, a low-end threat for a strong storm or two will be in place today. The strongest of the strongest storms could contain a strong wind gust or some rotation, but again this will be a low threat.

The storms are expected to continue through Saturday morning and early afternoon, before ending Saturday night.

Sunday looks good with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Highs will reach the mid-80s.

Another frontal system moves through early Monday, which could give us a round of storms. The severe threat with this system looks very low, with the majority of any strong activity well to the north of the area. Slightly cooler air will move in for Tuesday morning, but a warm front lifts north Tuesday afternoon.

Warm temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and isolated showers will be possible Wednesday and Thursday.

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