Another Sunday, another shot at severe storms

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  In my previous article today, I mentioned the several chances of rain that are coming in the week ahead.  Our only worry with severe weather will likely come from a front that moves through the area late on Sunday and Sunday night.

SPC Outlook:  Yesterday’s severe weather outlook from SPC showed a slight risk for all of the ArkLaTex on Sunday.  Today’s outlook has changed and shows a slight risk for all but the SW corner of our area.    

Storm timing: Sunday’s severe weather threat will probably be highest to the northeast of our area.  Models have trended later in the timing of the storms.  It now appears that storms will develop over Western Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma Sunday evening and then gradually spread to the southeast through our area on Sunday night.  If this timing holds, the storms will probably be strongest over the northern half of the area where they arrive soonest. There is some disagreement on where the storms will develop. One model shows the storms developing Sunday evening over the SE half of the area. Wherever the storms form, all severe weather threats still look possible, including large hail and a tornado or two.

How much rain?  There is decent model agreement that if you include the rain that is expected from all of our disturbances coming in the next several days, most of the area will likely receive around an inch of rainfall. Much of this rain could actually come from a system that moves through on Friday.

10-Day Forecast: Our long-range weather forecast will feature several more chances of rain.  Our next threat will arrive on Thursday night and Friday and could continue into Saturday morning, followed by the chance for strong thunderstorms on Sunday.  Next week will begin with several days of dry weather.  Temperatures will stay above normal during the next ten days, with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Our only severe weather concern could come this Sunday.