Big Country Spring Outlook: Warmer temps & a dry start

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) — As we entered March, meteorological spring began, and the cooler temperatures started to warm up. As we approach mid-March, astronomical spring will begin on the vernal equinox, which occurs on March 20th at 4:01 a.m. local time. The equinox usually falls between March 19th and March 21st, and this year it will be on the 20th.

As temperatures continue to rise, it’s a good time to consider what we can expect this spring.

First, let’s talk about this year’s weather pattern so far. La Nina developed several months ago and has been in full effect since then, allowing warmer and drier conditions to creep in and stick around for the time being. Unfortunately, that persists in the extended forecast.

A good indicator of warmer temperatures is the date of our last freeze. This year, our last freeze occurred at the end of February, and since then, temperatures have approached but have not dipped below freezing again. According to NOAA, we typically see our last freeze in March.

While we don’t have to question the presence of warmer temperatures, many are curious about when precipitation will begin. Unfortunately, the 7-day extended forecast shows that rain will avoid us once again. However, as severe weather season approaches, we can expect increased activity in our areas, particularly in May, which tends to bring unpredictable weather.

Currently, it’s difficult to determine when we might experience the spring showers. However, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s Outlook, this season is expected to be relatively drier than usual. As we move further into the season and conditions evolve, there may be a shift that brings more rain into the forecast.

Currently, NOAA predicts a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions. During this period, ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean approach their long-term averages. This can be highly beneficial, as it brings us closer to normal weather conditions. As confidence in this prediction grows, we will be better equipped to understand the upcoming season and the potential impact of certain weather systems.

Right now, the best thing you can do while waiting for the rain is to have a plan in case severe weather strikes. Don’t have a plan? Here’s how you can be prepared:

Be sure to check back for updates, and always tune in to your local meteorologist for the latest weather updates!