Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA disagree on Pacific Northwest’s spring outlook

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — The Old Farmer’s Almanac has predicted a drier, warmer spring for the Pacific Northwest, but a federal weather agency has said otherwise.

The almanac recently released its forecast for next season. Experts have estimated most of the U.S. will see higher temperatures than normal, including the Pacific Northwest. Yet the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects cooler days for the region from March to May.

In April, specifically, the Old Farmer’s forecast shows temperatures from Seattle to Eureka, Calif., will exceed normal conditions by about 3 degrees on average. The almanac projected below-normal conditions for the following month.

There is a similar outlook for the “Intermountain West,” the neighboring region including portions of Central and Eastern Oregon and Washington. The almanac projects April temperatures will be at least 4 degrees above average from Spokane to Reno, but temperatures will be 3 degrees below average in May. The publication also noted “chilly spells could lead to a late frost in some areas” that month.

The main difference between the forecast for the Pacific Northwest versus the Intermountain West is the rainfall predictions. While experts estimate the northwest will see dry conditions, the neighboring region is expected to see above-normal rainfall.

According to KOIN 6 Meteorologist Josh Cozart, only time will tell which forecast rings true in the coming months.

“Keep in mind, these seasonal outlooks are an average,” Cozart said. “There’s always room for moments of extremes in either direction. However, NOAA’s predicting a slightly cooler to normal temperature trend for the Pacific Northwest over the next three months. NOAA’s also predicting a slightly wetter season too. This contradicts The Old Farmer’s Almanac of a drier spring season. So, we’ll likely have to wait week to week to see how this spring season unfolds in the PNW.”

The almanac compiles forecasts by “comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.” NOAA compiles them with data from sources including citizen scientists, satellites and buoys.