Drought Monitor Update: Dry January in the Big Country with rain on the horizon

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – January is usually a dry month in the Big Country, with precipitation typically staying under an inch. We followed that trend this year, receiving just 0.82 inches of rain. We did get about an inch of snow, slightly above average, but overall, dry conditions were the main story. During the colder months, precipitation can be tricky since rain can freeze if temperatures dip below freezing. However, with so little moisture, road conditions mostly remained clear, though the dry weather has had a noticeable impact on our drought monitor.

After the summer, we saw a brief period of improvement with much-welcomed rain, but progress has stalled as precipitation levels begin to drop. With the rain tapering off, dry conditions are taking over. Last week, these dry conditions began to spread into much of Mitchell County and the western part of Coke County, areas that had shown signs of recovery in recent months. This dry trend then expanded into the Heartland and reached Coleman County. With cold, dry air lingering, we had little chance for improvement.

This week’s update doesn’t bring much relief. Dry conditions, once mostly centered in the Heartland, have now spread into Runnels County. However, there’s a glimmer of hope—rain is in the forecast for next week. Will it make a difference? The short answer: yes, eventually. But it likely won’t make a significant impact by the next drought monitor update. The extent of the improvement will depend on the storm track and how much rain actually falls.

This rain should arrive Tuesday, sticking around through Thursday, with heavier concentrations in our eastern counties and the Heartland — places that really need it. The rain will become more widespread by Wednesday night into Thursday, and some areas should get that much-needed rainfall.

Forecast amounts are anywhere from 0.2″ to 3″, depending on where you are.

Storm coverage will pick up by Wednesday night as the chance for severe storms gets a little higher. The Storm Prediction Center has the Big Country in a marginal (1/5) and slight (2/5) risk for severe storms overnight. Most of the Big Country is at marginal risk, with our northwest counties in a non-severe thunderstorm zone. The bottom part of the Heartland is at a slight risk, with potentially damaging winds and large hail.

As always, stay tuned to your local meteorologists for the latest updates as the rain moves in and the drought monitor is updated!