Snow chances dwindle for the Big Country: A look at the latest forecast

ABILENE, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Snow chances for the Big Country have taken a hit, as the latest weather models show a significant weakening in the system.

Forecasting winter weather is never an easy task. Data shifts rapidly, and outcomes sometimes remain unpredictable. It is always important to remember that changes can happen within the forecast at a moment’s notice. Let’s go ahead and break down the weather models and see what they are telling us in regard to timing, temperatures, and possible accumulations.

Based on the latest weather models, here’s how the timeline is shaping up for the Big Country.

• 9:00 p.m. Wednesday | Snowfall begins to enter the Big Country.
• 2:00 a.m. Thursday | Snowfall thickens for our northern counties, and ice develops for our southern counties.
• 8:00 a.m. Thursday | Scattered snow showers across the Big Country and ice still possible for our southern counties.
• 1:00 p.m. Thursday | Ice and snow turns to possible rainfall as temperatures begin to warm.
• 11:00 p.m. Thursday | Precipitation leaves the Big Country.

Based on what we know about the atmospheric conditions, we are currently set to receive winter precipitation. We can come up with an estimation of accumulation based on the range that a combination of weather models gives us. Based on four standard models, the Big Country is expected to receive anywhere around 0.1”- 2.5” of snow, with our northern counties receiving greater totals. Ice accumulation is much smaller with the maximum amount near 0.1″ in our southern counties.

Snowfall development requires two things: freezing temperatures and significant amounts of moisture. While moisture is present, temperature is the main reason behind the significant weakening of this system. It appears that our overnight temperatures will be below freezing within the mid-20s. Our daytime temperatures, however, will be warming up to the upper 30s. This is what can lead to a wintry mix of rain, ice, and snow. For a better understanding of winter precipitation and how it develops, visit here.

Stay warm, stay informed, and we will continue to provide updates regarding the winter weather across the Big Country.