The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will be competing for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday, but Super Bowl LVII prop bets allow fans to compete for something of their own.
While many focus on trying to predict who will win the Super Bowl, prop bets can often be a better alternative. A player like Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce might deliver a historic performance, with their Super Bowl LVII prop bets cashing in even if the Chiefs don’t win the game.
It’s a great way for fans not rooting for Kansas City or Philadelphia to feel more invested in the Super Bowl. With more than 100 million people watching, it should come as no surprise that more than $1 billion will likely be spent by bettors on Sunday.
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Let’s dive into the Super Bowl LVII prop bets, examining the picks we like to cash.
Super Bowl LVII prop bets preview
The prop bets are via BetMGM as of Monday, Feb. 6. As always, you can either take the prop bet outright or take a risk with a parlay.
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A.J. Brown prop bets
While we do have concerns with Hurts’ arm, this is still a matchup we can take advantage of with A.J. Brown. The Eagles’ No. 1 receiver is coming off an outstanding season and should play an integral role in Super Bowl LVII, especially against this Chiefs’ secondary.
- Kansas City Chiefs vs No. 1 WRs (Football Outsiders) 31st in DVOA (22%), 30th in receiving yards per game (81.2)
Brown drew 14 total targets in his first two playoff games, turning them into 50 receiving yards and 7.14 yards per reception. However, both games were effectively decided early and that eliminated the need for Philadelphia to keep throwing the ball.
In a Super Bowl where both teams should score at least 20 points apiece, Brown is destined for 10-plus targets. We love the matchup against the Chiefs’ secondary and taking the over on Brown’s receiving yards (71.5) and receptions (5.5).
Isiah Pacheco could cash in
The Kansas City Chiefs drafted Isiah Pacheco with the 251st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Facing an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster, the rookie running back earned it and then forced his way into the starting lineup.
From Weeks 9-17, Pacheco averaged 14 carries per game and turned them into 533 rushing yards with four touchdowns and a 5.02 yards per carry average. After rushing for 95 yards in the Divisional Round, Pacheco made his mark as a receiving back in the AFC Championship Game with five receptions for 59 receiving yards, ending the game with 85 scrimmage yards.
Keep in mind, the Eagles surrendered 199 rushing yards combined with two touchdowns and a 4.5 ypc average in their first two playoff games. While Philadelphia’s pass rush is outstanding, it can run into issues versus the run and committing to a balanced attack is the best way for Kansas City to win on Sunday.
We’ll happily take the over on Pacheco’s rushing yards line (49.5) and bet on the over for his carries (11.5). He’s shown more than enough to believe in him and the only thing that could let us down is Andy Reid not establishing the run early.
Super Bowl LVII prop bets start with Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is as reliable as they come. One of the best tight ends in NFL history is Mahomes’ go-to target and the rapport between the duo is unmatched. Even against an elite defense, we’re more than willing to put some money down on Kelce.
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He dominated against the Jacksonville Jaguars, hauling in 14-of-17 targets for 98 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Against Cincinnati, who used a good strategy to try and stop him, the All-Pro weapon still finished with 78 receiving yards and a score.
Confidence in Kelce certainly isn’t shaken by this matchup. If not for the quarterback injuries, San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle likely delivers far more than 32 receiving yards. While linebacker T.J. Edwards is dependable in coverage, defending one of the best pass-catchers of our era is a different story.
We’ll turn to Kelce three times in our Super Bowl LVII prop bets. Take the over on receptions (7.5), receiving yards (78.5) and feel pretty comfortable that he’ll check off the anytime touchdown (-125) on Sunday.
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Betting on Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts
Some of the most popular Super Bowl LVII prop bets center around the quarterbacks. It’s not a surprise given you have a two-time NFL MVP (Mahomes) and the 2022 MVP runner-up (Hurts) battling it out in a potentially high-scoring game.
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We’ll start with Mahomes, who should quite comfortably surpass the pass attempts line (38.5) and pass completions (25.5) set for him on Sunday. Mahomes has averaged 25.5 completions per game in his postseason career and the volume of attempts should reflect closer to what we saw in his previous two Super Bowl appearances (91 combined).
Based on the projected volumes of throws and the amount of pressure he’ll face in the pocket from the Eagles’ pass rush, we’re willing to roll the dice on a turnover. Mahomes’ interception line 0.5, -110) is enticing against Philadelphia’s playmaking secondary, we’ll take the over on touchdowns (1.5) while we’re at it.
Hurts certainly faces a more advantageous matchup than Mahomes. However, he is also still playing through a shoulder injury. While the Eagles have downplayed the issue, Hurts is averaging just 15.5 completions and 24.5 pass attempts per game in the playoffs.
As a result, we’re going to take the under on a few Super Bowl LVII prop bets for Hurts. Among our selections is the passing touchdown line (-1.5), passing yards (242.5) and passing attempts (31.5). It’s not all negative, Hurts’ rushing yardage (49.5) and an anytime touchdown (-110) are worthy selections.
Bonus Super Bowl LVII prop bet picks
- Patrick Mahomes – Super Bowl MVP – +135
- AJ Brown – Super Bowl MVP – +1400
- Haason Reddick – Super Bowl MVP – +3000
- First scoring play – Philadelphia Eagles TD – +550
- Travis Kelce to record 75+ yards and a TD – +155
- Coin Toss – Heads – -105
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Author: Matt Johnson