The five biggest keys for the SF Giants to beat the Dodgers in NLDS Game 5

SAN FRANCISCO — Buster Posey said “this is why you play.”

Dave Roberts said “this is what baseball wants.”

With 23 chapters in one of the most compelling versions of one of the greatest rivalries in sports already written, the Giants and Dodgers will author the ending to their 2021 story on Thursday at Oracle Park.

The 24th head-to-head matchup between the clubs this season is a first-of-its-kind: A winner-take-all playoff game with a berth in the National League Championship Series on the line.

As a pair of clubs that have won 109 games since Opening Day prepare to square off in San Francisco, we looked at the five biggest keys to the game for a Giants team that expects to finish the NLDS the same way it ended the regular season: One game ahead of the Dodgers.

1. Another Webb gem

In the two most important games of his life, Webb has turned in spectacular performances. After helping the Giants clinch the NL West with an outstanding outing against the Padres, Webb turned in a sensational effort in Game 1 of the NLDS when he tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings against the Dodgers.

The Giants’ lineup has struggled this series and many of their relievers have struggled, so it’s difficult to envision San Francisco out-slugging Los Angeles in a high-scoring affair. Webb is one of the best groundball pitchers in the majors, so inducing weak contact and generating swings and misses through at least five innings will be critical in giving the Giants a chance to win.

2. Win with the long ball

Forget sacrifice bunts, hit and runs and stringing three-to-four hits together in the same inning. If the Giants are going to beat Urías, their best chance is to hit the ball out of the park.

The Giants set a new franchise record with 241 home runs this season as 17 different players hit at least five, but Urías is one of the league’s best at suppressing home runs as the 0.92 he allowed per nine innings this year ranked 14th among qualified starters.

The lefty has only given up multiple home runs in four games this year and in six starts against the Giants this season including his Game 2 NLDS outing, Urías has only allowed a combined three home runs. Austin Slater, Donovan Solano and Mike Yastrzemski are the three players who have taken Urías deep this year, but given the Giants’ platoon preferences, it’s unlikely Yastrzemski will be in Wednesday’s starting lineup.

The foundation of the Giants’ offensive identity is the home run, and that won’t change Thursday.

3. No free baserunners

The Dodgers are an exceptional offensive team that has enough firepower to beat even the league’s best pitchers. It’s not a group that needs much help.

Throughout the series, Giants pitchers, and specifically the team’s relievers, have aided the Dodgers’ offense by issuing too many walks against a lineup that had the lowest chase rate in the majors. Webb found success in Game 1 by pounding the strike zone and inducing swings on competitive pitches that were close to the zone, and he expects to follow the same formula on Thursday.

Aside from avoiding walks, the Giants can’t afford to make errors or mental mistakes that allow Dodgers players to reach base or take an extra base. From Mookie Betts to Trea Turner to Cody Bellinger, the Dodgers have excellent team speed and can take advantage of even the smallest miscues.

4. Handle the pressure of the eighth and ninth innings

Even though only one of the four games the teams have played this series has featured a reliever pitching in a save situation, it seemed as if every head-to-head matchup in the regular season came down to the wire. Six of the 19 games the Giants and Dodgers played before the playoffs were decided by one run, and both Tyler Rogers and Kenley Jansen struggled in some of the biggest moments.

If Thursday’s game is close and low-scoring, expect Rogers and 24-year-old rookie Camilo Doval to pitch in the highest-pressure situations of their careers while Jansen and Blake Treinen will be the Dodgers’ preferred options. Doval never appears fazed, but a lot can change when the season is on the line.

Jansen has far more experience in similar moments, but Giants hitters have had more success against him in 2021 than any other year of his career. Against a pitcher who has been known to nibble off the edges of the strike zone, maintaining excellent plate discipline could be key to extending the season.

5. Someone has to play the game of their life

Perhaps it’s Webb, the emerging ace who might be one of the best young starters in the majors.

Perhaps it’s battled-tested veterans such as Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford, who have already authored some of the Giants’ most important playoff moments.

Perhaps it’s an unlikely role player coming off the bench to deliver in a big spot, but regardless of who steps up and when, the Giants will probably need someone to have the “game of their life” to beat the Dodgers. That doesn’t mean Alex Dickerson can or will outdo his three-homer game against the Rockies last September, but it does mean if Dickerson is batting in the pitcher’s spot in the seventh inning, he might need to hit the most important home run of his career to lead the Giants to a win.

October is when heroes are made, but that doesn’t mean the best player on the team has to put the rest of the club on his back. Just ask Cody Ross, Edgar Renteria and Travis Ishikawa, who carved out their own places in Giants history when no one expected it.

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Author: Kerry Crowley

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